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利用时差互相关方法分析中国林业PMI测试期数据(FPI指数)与木材产业宏观经济数据之间的领先相关关系,结合峰谷比较法探究FPI指数中进口指数和出口指数分别与中国木质林产品进出口额之间的领先和滞后关系。研究表明,FPI指数对木材产业宏观经济数据表现出一定的领先相关,FPI的进口指数和出口指数分别领先于木质林产品进出口额1~3个月,可为今后对木材产业的监测及预警提供参考依据。
Using the time difference cross-correlation method to analyze the leading correlation between China’s PMI data and the macroeconomic data of the wood industry, and to explore the relationship between import index and export index of the FPI index and China’s woodland products Leading and lagging relationship between exports. The research shows that the FPI index has some leading correlations with the macroeconomic data of the wood industry. The import index and export index of FPI are respectively 1 ~ 3 months ahead of the import and export of wood products, which can be used for the monitoring and early warning of the timber industry in the future Provide a reference basis.