In China,the lack of comprehensive investigative on data on pavement performance within the design life of pavement hinders research on the changes in the performance of asphalt pavement.The combination of the Pavement-ME system(PME)and matter element analysis(MEA)can be advantageous in addressing the problem of traditional methods that yield inadequate data.Measured data for the rutting of a road section in the Shaanxi province was employed as the validation data in this study.The input parameter for PME was localized,and a decay model based on the predicted results of PME was established by the MEA method.The results indicate that the predicted results of rutting using PME show a "lagging" characteristic when compared with the measured data.Some optimization measures are employed to process the predicted results of PME and achieve a better fitting effect with the measured data.The predicted data for rutting can serve as essential data of the MEA method to study the decay tendency of the rutting of asphalt pavement in design life.A case study reveals that the rutting resistance of asphalt pavement will deteriorate from excellent to good,good to medium,medium to inferior,and inferior to bad in 13.8 months,32.5 months,43.8 months,and 55.2 months,respectively.The combination of PME and MEA is appropriate to evaluate rutting potential in project level pavements.A follow-up study can be carried out on the developing trend of the pavement damage,so as to better determine the maintenance time for the selected road section.