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本文采用相关分析、路径分析、脉冲响应、方差分解等多种数量分析手段,以2001年1月~2010年12月为样本区间,在对热钱进行测度的基础上,研究了热钱通过中国股市、楼市、大宗商品价格对CPI的影响路径、作用大小与方向。实证结果显示,人民币汇率预期的增强是热钱不断流入中国的主要因素,热钱主要是通过股市和大宗商品价格路径影响CPI,并没有通过楼市路径影响CPI。进而在某种意义上,对已有的理论进行了数量分析方面的诠释。
In this paper, a number of quantitative analysis methods such as correlation analysis, path analysis, impulse response and variance decomposition were used to analyze the hot money through the analysis of hot money in China from January 2001 to December 2010, The property market, the impact of commodity prices on the CPI path, the role of size and direction. The empirical results show that the expectation of RMB exchange rate increase is the main factor that hot money continuously flows into China. The hot money mainly affects the CPI through the stock market and commodity price path and does not affect the CPI through the property market. In a sense, the existing theory is quantitatively analyzed.