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通过观察历史数据变化规律,运用回归分析法对2012—2016年中国汽车报废量、新增量和保有量进行预测,并根据汽车市场实际变化情况,对预测结果进行修正,旨在从宏观上把握未来报废汽车行业的发展趋势,为中国汽车产品全生命周期节能减排评价提供数据支持。
By observing the changing law of historical data and using regression analysis to predict the amount of China’s automobile scrapped, newly added and retained from 2012 to 2016, and according to the actual changes in the automobile market, the forecast results were revised in order to grasp macroscopically The future development trend of the scrapped automotive industry provides data support for the evaluation of energy conservation and emission reduction in the life cycle of China’s automotive products.