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TOT模式是在BOT模式基础上发展的一种全新模式,在项目移交转让时,因特许经营期比较长,而且受到很多不确定性因素的影响,转让方与经营方在做出决策时需要对特许经营期的运营成本进行合理的估算。在对水电TOT项目运营成本构成要素分析的基础上,构建出每个部分的计算公式及运营成本的估算模型;以故障频数为变量,运用蒙特卡洛模拟技术对故障损失费用进行模拟估算;利用Matlab 7.0软件求出云模型的3个数字特征值,根据这3个数值运用正态云发生器构建出正态云图,进而估算出运营成本的最大可能值。
TOT model is based on the BOT model developed a new model in the project transfer of the transfer, the franchise period is longer, but also by a number of uncertainties, the transferor and the operator in making decisions need to The operating costs during the franchise period are reasonably estimated. Based on the analysis of the components of the operation cost of TOT project in hydropower, the calculation formula of each part and the estimation model of operating cost are constructed. The failure frequency is used as a variable to simulate the cost of failure loss using Monte Carlo simulation technique. Matlab 7.0 software to calculate the cloud model three digital eigenvalues, based on these three values using normal cloud generator to build a normal cloud, and then estimated the maximum possible cost of operating.