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本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验法对入世前后影响我国棉花国际贸易行为的诸因素进行了甄别和计量分析,研究表明在入世前我国棉花垄断经营时期,棉花的进出口只关注供给层面而忽视需求层面,并随着生产量和库存量的变化而波动,而入世以后我国棉花国际贸易波动则主要是受市场价格及需求因素的影响。
This paper uses the Granger causality test method to identify and analyze the various factors affecting the international trade of cotton in China before and after the accession to the WTO. The research shows that before China’s accession to the WTO, the import and export of cotton only paid attention to the supply level and neglected the demand Level and fluctuates with changes in production volume and inventory. After China’s accession to the WTO, China’s international trade in cotton fluctuates mainly due to market prices and demand.