论文部分内容阅读
热图像的卫星数据揭示了与地壳断层大线性结构和系统相关的热场的存在。所测量的长波辐射高度正好落在急流区间内。本工作描述了两个区域范围内强震和急流之间可能存在的联系。在2006~2010年强震(M>6.0)震中附近,气流的前端或尾端位置能在震中附近保持6个小时甚至更久。在一张6小时气象图上有93.6%的几率可以观测到稳定的急流,而在两张邻接的气象图上看到这种变化的几率是26.7%。震中和急流位置分布的中位数为36.5km。能实现预测的累积概率估算值如下:10天为24.2%,20天为48.4%,30天为66.1%,40天为87.1%,50天为93.5%,70天为100%。观测到的前兆效应可能会引起地震实际短临预报应用者的极大兴趣。
Satellite data from thermal images reveal the existence of thermal fields associated with large linear structures and systems in the crust. The measured height of longwave radiation falls just within the rapids interval. This work describes the possible linkages between strong earthquakes and rapid currents over the two regions. In the vicinity of the epicenter of the strong earthquake (M> 6.0) from 2006 to 2010, the front or tail position of the airflow can be maintained near the epicenter for 6 hours or more. With a probability of 93.6% on a 6-hour weather chart, a steady stream is observed, with a 26.7% chance of seeing this change on two adjacent weather charts. The median distribution of epicenter and rapids was 36.5km. Estimates of the cumulative probability of achieving the prediction are as follows: 24.2% for 10 days, 48.4% for 20 days, 66.1% for 30 days, 87.1% for 40 days, 93.5% for 50 days, and 100% for 70 days. The observed precursory effects can be of great interest to those who are actually short-term forecasts of earthquakes.