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本文简要地对分析预报中心利用统计学方法所做工作的可能进展提出了一些建议。前两节对统计学方法在地震学中所起的作用做了大致的介绍,并概述了笔者所了解的分析预报中心利用这类方法的范围和必要性。文章认为在利用统计学方法进行地震研究中,分析预报中心应该成为独一无二的国家级的、甚至是国际级的科研中心;目前分析预报中心非常需要利用这类方法,并且此方法将来很可能越来越需要。第三节提出了为发展统计学方法,应早日建立一个新的机构来对此方法进行专门研究和推广,并在分析预报中心内或是在国家地震局内逐渐成为一个中心。另外,还对这一发展中的一些优势和可能遇到的困难进行了讨论。
This paper gives some brief comments on the possible progress of the work of analyzing and forecasting centers using statistical methods. The first two sections give a general introduction to the role of statistical methods in seismology and outline the scope and necessity of the use of such methods by the Analytical Forecast Center. In the article, we think that in the research of earthquake using statistical methods, the analysis and forecasting center should become a unique national or even international research center. At present, the analysis and prediction center needs to utilize such methods, and this method is likely to come in the future The more you need. The third section proposes to develop a new mechanism for the development of statistical methods to conduct a special study and promotion of this method, and gradually become a center within the analysis and forecast center or within the State Seismological Bureau. In addition, some advantages and possible difficulties in this development are discussed.