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粮食安全始终是关系我国国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题,因而粮食核心区省份是否应该推进工业化一直是各方争论的焦点问题。本文首先通过描述国内外一些现象提出理论假设,即在一定条件下工业化可以促使粮食产量的提高。然后建立数理模型和计量模型,利用6个粮食核心区省份1995-2013年的面板数据做了实证研究。研究结果显示:河南、辽宁、吉林和黑龙江四省仍然处于工业化提高粮食产量的起飞阶段,河北和山东两省处于工业化提高粮食产量的高级阶段但工业化水平远未达到使粮食产量最大化的临界值,因此六省份都应该继续推进工业化进程。同时,本文证明了在不同水平下工业化可以提高或降低粮食产量。
Food security has always been a major strategic issue concerning the overall national economic development, social stability and national independence in our country. Therefore, whether or not the grain-core provinces should promote industrialization has been the focus of debate among all parties. In this paper, we first make a theoretical hypothesis by describing some phenomena both at home and abroad. Under certain conditions, industrialization can promote the increase of grain output. Then we set up the mathematical model and the econometric model and make empirical research using the panel data from 1995 to 2013 in the six grain core provinces. The results show that the four provinces of Henan, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang are still in the take-off stage of industrialization to increase grain production. Hebei and Shandong provinces are in the advanced stage of industrialization to increase grain output. However, the industrialization level is far from reaching the critical value that maximizes grain output Therefore, the six provinces should continue to promote the industrialization process. At the same time, this paper proves that industrialization can increase or decrease grain output at different levels.