The existing network security management systems are unable either to provide users with useful security situation and risk assessment, or to aid administrators to make right and timely decisions based on the current state of network. These disadvantages always put the whole network security management at high risk. This paper establishes a simulation environment, captures the alerts as the experimental data and adopts statistical analysis to seek the vulnerabilities of the services provided by the hosts in the network. According to the factors of the network, the paper introduces the two concepts: Situational Meta and Situational Weight to depict the total security situation. A novel hierarchical algorithm based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to analyze the hierarchy of network and confirm the weighting coefficients. The algorithm can be utilized for modeling security situation, and determining its mathematical expression. Coupled with the statistical results, this paper simulates the security situational trends.Finally, the analysis of the simulation results proves the algorithm efficient and applicable, and provides us with an academic foundation for the implementation in the security situation.