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2011年以来,实体经济活动经历过两次明显的台阶式下滑,本文在分析财政政策、外贸、房地产形势对经济增速影响的基础上,对2016年上半年经济增长持谨慎看法。2011年以来,实体经济活动经历过两次明显的台阶式下滑。第一次发生在2011年底至2012年上半年,当时严厉货币紧缩是背景,出口、房地产投资和制造业投资增速同步大幅下滑。第二次经济减速发生在2014年下半年至2015年初。此次经济下滑的一个非常重要的催化剂,
Since 2011, the real economy has undergone two obvious step down. Based on the analysis of the impact of fiscal policy, foreign trade and real estate situation on economic growth, this article holds a cautious view on the economic growth in the first half of 2016. Since 2011, the real economy has undergone two clear step downs. The first occurred from the end of 2011 to the first half of 2012, when the severe monetary tightening was the backdrop. The growth rate of exports, real estate investment and manufacturing investment dropped sharply simultaneously. The second economic slowdown occurred in the second half of 2014 to early 2015. The economic downturn is a very important catalyst,