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以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末(220 BC~1910 AD)10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段(220 BC~31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD)和3个相对匮乏阶段(30 BC~440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD)。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。
Based on the contemporary history and economic history, the semantic grading standards of the terms related to the fiscal surplus and loss of the dynasties were established to reconstruct the 10-year-resolution financial grade sequence from Qin Dynasty to the late Qing Dynasty (220 BC-1910 AD) Relationship with climate change. The results show that the financial balance between the Qin Dynasty and the late Qing Dynasty generally experienced four relatively abundant stages (220 BC ~ 31 BC, 441 ~ 760 AD, 961 ~ 1210 AD, 1381 ~ 1910 AD) and three relatively scarce stages (30 BC ~ 440 AD, 761-960 AD, 1211-1380 AD). The fiscal crisis is most likely to erupt in a cold-arid climate. The fiscal balance is positively correlated with the change of temperature and precipitation, and the trend change of the financial balance is more obviously affected by long-term temperature and precipitation changes. However, due to the complex feedback of multi-factor factors, the two show anti-phase relations in some time periods.