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财政政策周期特征是近年来研究财政政策有效性的新视角。现有研究普遍指出发达国家的财政政策是逆周期的,但是发展中国家却呈现出明显的顺周期特征。本文回顾了金融危机以来关于财政政策周期特征研究中所存在的争论与共识,包括研究结论的一致性、政策变量选择和方法论分歧、理论解释和中国财政政策研究的基本结论,并以美国中长期预算和智利结构预算为例分析了缓解财政顺周期调控、实现逆周期调控的制度设计经验。
The periodic characteristic of fiscal policy is a new perspective to study the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent years. The existing studies generally point out that the fiscal policies of developed countries are counter-cyclical, but developing countries show obvious procyclical features. This paper reviews the controversy and consensus on the study of the cyclical characteristics of fiscal policy since the financial crisis, including the consistency of research conclusions, the choice of policy variables and differences in methodology, the theoretical explanation and the basic conclusions of the study on China’s fiscal policy. Budget and Chile’s structural budget as an example, analyzes the institutional design experience of alleviating fiscal pro-cyclical regulation and realizing counter-cyclical regulation and control.