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本文以我国35个大中城市房价指数和居民消费价格指数的面板数据为研究对象,借助Copula分位数回归模型,研究了房价波动对居民消费价格水平的非线性影响作用。研究发现:首先,房价波动幅度明显大于居民消费价格波动幅度,整体而言房价对居民消费价格存在正向影响效应;其次,在房价上涨较快的城市和房价上涨较慢的城市中,房价的影响作用存在明显差异;再次,随着居民消费价格水平的变化,房价的影响作用也会发生改变。针对以上研究结论,提出针对房价波动对居民消费价格水平的非线性影响的政策建议。
In this paper, the panel data of housing prices and consumer price indices in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China are taken as research objects. With Copula quantile regression model, the non-linear effect of housing price volatility on the consumer price level is studied. The research finds that firstly, the volatility of house price is obviously greater than the fluctuation of resident consumer price. On the whole, the house price has a positive effect on the consumer price. Secondly, in the cities where house prices rise rapidly and the house prices rise slowly, There are significant differences in the impact; once again, with the changes in consumer prices, the impact of housing prices will change. Aiming at the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions aiming at the non-linear impact of housing price volatility on the consumer price level.