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本文基于2010年全国6个省份实地调研数据,采用了Logit和Probit模型分析农户应对冻灾时采用的适应性措施的决定因素。研究结果表明,调查样本中遭受冻灾的农户比例为25.6%,其中有63.4%的农户采取了适应性措施,且以非工程措施为主;措施采用影响因素方面,政府等机构在灾前和灾后提供的灾情预警信息和抗灾支持能显著促进农户采用适应性措施;农户及村级特征方面,农户年龄、社会资本等对适应性措施的采用有负向作用,农户家庭财富、是否参与农合、村经济发展水平、平原地形、便利地域位置等因素对适应性措施的采用有正向作用。最后建议政府在应对冻灾事件时应该加大抗灾信息的宣传力度,扩大抗灾支持的普及面,切实提高农户采用适应性措施的能力。
Based on the field survey data of six provinces nationwide in 2010, this paper uses the Logit and Probit models to analyze the determinants of the adaptive measures adopted by peasants in dealing with cold disasters. The results show that the proportion of farmers in the survey sample suffering from the freezing disaster is 25.6%, of which 63.4% of the farmers adopted the adaptive measures, and non-engineering measures are the main ones. In terms of the influential factors, Disaster early warning information and disaster response provided after the disaster can significantly promote the adoption of adaptive measures; farmers and village characteristics, the age of farmers, social capital and other negative effects on the adoption of adaptive measures, household wealth, whether to participate in rural cooperation The level of economic development in the village, the plain topography and the location of convenient areas have a positive effect on the adoption of adaptive measures. Finally, it is suggested that the government should increase propaganda of disaster information in the event of freezing disaster, expand the popularization of disaster support and effectively improve the ability of farmers to adopt adaptive measures.