一般人群中乙型肝炎表面抗原(HBsAg)携带者的携带时间是乙肝流行病学研究中的重要课题。由于在一般人群中往往难以知道每个携带者的阳转时间,因而难以或不可能从HBsAg 刚刚阳转一直观察到其阴转,得到HBsAg 的携带时间,往往只能在人群中进行横断检测查出 HBsAg 携带者,然后对其反复追踪检测来得到 HBsAg 携带时间,即进行“横断阳性者的随访观察”。本文应用计算机模拟的方法分析了这种研究方法的特点. The carrying time of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers in the general population is an important issue in the epidemiological study of hepatitis B. Since it is often difficult to know the circulatory transit time of each carrier in the general population, it is difficult or impossible to observe the negative conversion from the positive HBsAg rotation, and the HBsAg-carrying time can often be detected only in the population. The carriers of HBsAg were then repeatedly tracked and tested to obtain the HBsAg carrying time, that is, a “follow-up observation of cross-positive subjects”. In this paper, the characteristics of this research method are analyzed using computer simulation methods.