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实证分析通货膨胀对我国股票收益率的影响,发现其因果关系是单向的,两者之间既可以正相关,也可以负相关。从长期来看,高通胀会给企业盈利和国家的GDP带来负面影响,并且利率的提高会降低股票价格,出现“通胀无牛市”的局面。但在一段时期内,为抵补通货膨胀带来的购买力损失,投资者会分流部分银行储蓄资金投资于金融资产,从而推动股市的发展。所以,股票市场的“牛市”或“熊市”不能简单的用通货膨胀来衡量。
Empirical analysis of the impact of inflation on China’s stock returns, found that the causal relationship is one-way, the two can be either positive or negative correlation. In the long run, high inflation will have a negative impact on corporate earnings and the country’s GDP, and rising interest rates will lower the stock price and lead to a “no bullish inflation” situation. However, over a period of time, to offset the loss of purchasing power brought by inflation, investors will divert part of the bank’s savings funds to invest in financial assets so as to promote the development of the stock market. Therefore, the “bull market” or “bear market” in the stock market can not simply be measured by inflation.