本文通过构建一个简单的博弈模型来研究多边贸易谈判的未来前景。揭示出参与世贸组织(WTO)实质谈判和激烈讨价还价的是少数几个跨国集团联盟,随着时间的推移,各谈判集团中的强硬派官员会逐渐增多,当谈判代表全部由强硬派构成的时候,协议很难达成。导致强硬派不妥协的主要原因是各方对农业利益持有零和博弈的观点。谈判恢复和协议的最终达成依赖于各方对农业生产者利益的让步。 This article studies the future prospects of multilateral trade negotiations by building a simple game model. Revealing that substantial participation in WTO negotiations and fierce bargaining is one of the few coalition of transnational corporations that has seen more and more hard-liners increase over time in negotiating groups. When the negotiators are all composed of hard-liners , The agreement is difficult to reach. The main reason leading to the hard-liners not to compromise is the view that all parties hold a zero-sum game over agricultural interests. The resumption of negotiations and the eventual conclusion of the agreement depend on the concessions made by all parties to the interests of agricultural producers.