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转型期经济增长方式的选择是目前学术界讨论的重点,也是宏观经济政策制定者密切关注的问题。本文选取1978—2013年的统计数据,分别从定性和定量两个角度来诠释消费是促进经济增长的必然选择。定性研究结果表明,国内人均消费量与国内人均生产量之间存在着正相关关系,两者的趋势图近似为一条直线,且各统计指标也符合当今社会发展的现状。定量研究结果表明,国内人均消费量与国内人均生产量是两组非平稳时间序列,但其一阶差分是平稳的时间序列;通过协整分析,发现两者之间存在着长期稳定的关系;最后对时间序列做格兰杰因果关系检验,结果表明,国内人均消费量与国内人均生产量之间存在着单向的因果关系,即消费增长是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而经济增长不是消费增长的格兰杰原因。
The choice of economic growth mode during the transition period is the focus of academic discussion at present, and it is also the issue that macroeconomic policy makers pay close attention to. This paper selects the statistical data from 1978 to 2013 and interprets the consumption separately from qualitative and quantitative perspectives as the necessary choice to promote economic growth. Qualitative research results show that there is a positive correlation between domestic per capita consumption and domestic per capita production, and the trend of the two is approximately a straight line, and the statistical indicators are in line with the current social development. Quantitative research results show that domestic per capita consumption and domestic per capita production are two groups of non-stationary time series, but the first-order difference is a steady time series. Through co-integration analysis, it is found that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the two. Finally, Granger causality test of time series shows that there exists a one-way causal relationship between domestic per capita consumption and domestic per capita production, that is, consumption growth is Granger reason for economic growth, while economic growth is not Granger reason for consumption growth.