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水利水电建设在许多河流上已形成梯级开发的格局,梯级库群既是国民经济的支柱产业,又是可能给人类社会带来灾难性后果的高风险源。因此,研究梯级库群系统的整体破坏风险显得尤为重要。本文在使用模糊隶属度函数计算单个水库漫顶失效概率的基础上,运用系统工程中层次分析法的相关知识,建立了梯级库群失效的层次分析模型,构造相应的判断矩阵来计算流域中各水库的综合权重,通过对比选用了k/N系统可靠度模型对整个梯级库群进行分析,最终综合计算出含权重因子的梯级库群系统的整体失效概率,与传统k/N系统可靠度模型计算出的梯级库群失效概率相比,本文所得的梯级库群系统失效概率更为合理,可为梯级库群的安全分析及优化设计提供一定的参考。
Water conservancy and hydropower construction has formed a pattern of cascade development on many rivers. Cascading reservoir groups are not only the pillar industries of the national economy but also the high-risk sources that may have catastrophic consequences for human society. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the overall risk of destroying a cascade reservoir system. In this paper, based on the fuzzy membership function to calculate the probability of a single reservoir aversion to failure, using the knowledge of AHP in system engineering, we establish the AHP model of the failure of a cascade reservoir and construct the corresponding judgment matrix to calculate the The comprehensive weight of reservoir is analyzed and the whole cascade reservoir group is analyzed by comparing with the k / N system reliability model. Finally, the overall failure probability of the cascade reservoir system with weighting factor is calculated. Compared with the traditional k / N system reliability model Compared with the calculated failure probability of cascade reservoir, the failure probability of the cascade reservoir system obtained in this paper is more reasonable, which can provide some references for the safety analysis and optimal design of cascade reservoir.