航运业走势不确定因素较大,回头来看,2007-2010的跳跃性走势都是超预期的,对于实体经营者指导意义不大,笔者更倾向以宏观层面的“变量”来观察海运市场的走向。定性来看,宏观经济方面,近年来国内经济总量和进出口额增速将会进入一个下行平台,政府转型之路早已全面铺开,实体经济中我们正借助一带一路、自贸区试点,打破传统监管瓶颈、加强国内外贸 Looking back, the jumping trend of 2007-2010 is beyond expectation, and it is not meaningful for the guidance of the entity operator. The author is more inclined to observe the maritime transportation with the “variable” of macro level Market trend. In qualitative terms, in the macro economy, in recent years, the growth rate of the total domestic economy and the volume of imports and exports will enter a downward trend. The transition of the government has been fully rolled out. In the real economy, we are piloting the “Belt and Road” Break the bottleneck of traditional regulation and strengthen domestic trade