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目的分析甘州区2000-2011年麻疹发病的季节性和长期趋势,为防治工作提供科学依据。方法对甘州区2000-2011年传染病监测系统上报的麻疹数据,用圆形分布法分析麻疹发病的高峰日和高峰期,用相关分析法分析麻疹发病的长期趋势。结果 (1)甘州区麻疹发病存在明显的季节性,其季节分布特征是全年均可发病,2~3月份发病人数逐渐增多,4~5月份达高峰,6月份以后下降,8月份~次年1月份最低。(2)甘州区2000-2011年麻疹发病均存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P<0.01),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同,总高峰日在4月29日,总高峰期为3月29日至5月30日。(3)甘州区2000-2011年麻疹发病呈现一定的周期性,一般4~5年出现一个发病高峰。结论应围绕甘州区麻疹发病的季节性和长期趋势,在麻疹发病高峰期到来之前,积极采取防控措施。
Objective To analyze the seasonal and long-term trends of measles in 2000-2011 in Ganzhou, providing a scientific basis for prevention and treatment. Methods The measles data reported by the Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2000 to 2011 in Ganzhou District were analyzed by circular distribution method. The correlation analysis was used to analyze the long-term trend of the incidence of measles. Results (1) The incidence of measles in Ganzhou was obviously seasonal. The seasonal distribution characteristics of measles in Ganzhou were all year-round. The incidence increased in February and March, reaching the peak in April and May, dropping after June, and in August ~ The following January the lowest. (2) The incidence of measles in Ganzhou from 2000 to 2011 both showed a significant peak day and a peak (P <0.01), and the peak incidence was not the same or not the same in each year. The total peak day was on April 29, From March 29 to May 30. (3) The incidence of measles in Ganzhou from 2000 to 2011 showed a certain periodicity, with a peak incidence in 4 ~ 5 years. Conclusions The seasonal and long-term trends of measles incidence should be centered around Ganzhou District. Before the peak period of measles incidence, prevention and control measures should be adopted actively.