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数字型彩票发行至今销量迅速暴涨后又停滞甚至暴跌的原因,值得研究。彩票购买者存在着“赌徒谬误”和“沉没成本误区”形式的不健康心理,这对于彩票销量有双刃剑效应:一方面,不健康心理在短期内催生数字型彩票过高的销量;另一方面,出现危机时,即使彩票发行机构实施保护彩民举措,彩民因其心理不健康,也会误解其为伤害,这导致彩票销量下降。彩票发行机构缺乏危机防范和应对意识,落入塔西佗陷阱,彩票销量进一步下降。随时间推移,购买者心理健康程度有提高趋势,彩票销量也将下降。返奖率提高1%会使销量相应增加5%～6%。玩法相同的体彩排列三和福彩3D之间共生共荣的互补关系大于相互竞争关系。应引导彩民健康投注,慎重推出新彩种,适当提高数字型彩票返奖率,体彩与福彩联系其他机构开展合作营销。
The reason why the digital lottery issue has stagnated or even plummeted after the rapid surge in sales so far is worth studying. Lottery buyers have unhealthy psychology in the form of “gambler fallacy” and “sunk cost misunderstanding,” which has a double-edged sword effect on lottery sales: on the one hand, unhealthy psychology is driving digital lottery over the short term Sales volume. On the other hand, even in the event of a crisis, even though the Lottery Issuing Organization implemented the Lottery Protestant Initiative, Lottery would misunderstand it as a result of its unhealthy psychology. As a result, lottery sales dropped. Lottery issuing institutions lack awareness of crisis prevention and response, fall into the trap of Tacitus, and lottery sales have dropped further. Over time, the psychological health of purchasers has increased, lottery sales will also decline. 1% return rate will increase sales of a corresponding increase of 5% to 6%. The same complementary relationship between body lotion rankings and Welfare Lottery 3D is greater than competing relationship. Talent Lottery should be led to health betting, prudent launch of new species of color, digital lottery to raise the appropriate rate of return Lottery and Welfare Association to contact other agencies to carry out cooperative marketing.