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以2005年6月至2011年10月的玉米价格、豆粕价格、原料奶价格、鲜奶价格为研究对象,运用链合模型探索了我国奶业发展中玉米和豆粕价格与奶价的传导关系.研究结果表明,玉米、豆粕与奶价之间长期均衡关系存在,豆粕价格对奶价的传导作用明显大于玉米价格,奶价对玉米价格和豆粕价格的传导机制不存在,即奶业发展对玉米和豆粕产业具有依赖性,反之,奶业的发展对玉米和豆粕产业的反推动作用不明显.
Taking the corn price, soybean meal price, raw milk price and fresh milk price from June 2005 to October 2011 as the research object, this paper explores the conduction relationship between the price of maize and soybean meal and the milk price in the development of dairy industry in China by using the linkage model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between corn, soybean meal and milk price. The conduction of soybean meal price to milk price is obviously larger than that of corn. The conduction mechanism of milk price to corn price and soybean meal price does not exist. And soybean meal industry has the dependence, on the contrary, the development of dairy industry on the corn and soybean meal industry anti-impetus effect is not obvious.