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2015年初深圳佳兆业公司的外债违约事件引发市场高度关注,投资者对我国企业外债风险的担忧加剧。但由于统计口径和数据可得性等原因,我国企业外债的整体规模说法不一。全面测算企业外债规模是问题的关键。我们基于彭博系统(Bloomberg)建立了较全面的企业海外借债数据库。对比当前登记外债、国际投资头寸等统计,我们认为可将国内银行海外机构及其他机构海外融资公司的借债一并纳入统计,从更宽口径观察、分析企业的外债风险。据此测算,截至2015年1月,我国企业债券及贷款的外债规模约7000亿美元,加上贸易融资等其他登记外债,外债总规模约1万亿美元。企业外债占外汇储备仅25%,整体风险可控,但房地产和钢铁行业海外举债较多、借债成本较高,需防范相应风险。
In early 2015, Shenzhen Jiaoshiba Company’s external debt default incident triggered a high degree of market concern and investors worried about the risk of foreign debt of China’s enterprises. However, due to the statistical size and data availability and other reasons, the overall size of China’s corporate debt vary. A full measure of the size of the foreign debt is the key issue. We have built a more comprehensive corporate debt offshore database based on Bloomberg. Compared with the current statistics on registered foreign debts and international investment positions, we think we can include the borrowings of overseas financing companies from domestic banks and other institutions in the statistics, and look at the wider scope to analyze the foreign debt risks of the enterprises. According to the estimates, as of January 2015, the size of the foreign debt of China’s corporate bonds and loans is about 700 billion U.S. dollars. Coupled with other registered foreign debt such as trade financing, the total size of the foreign debt is about 1 trillion U.S. dollars. Corporate foreign debt accounts for only 25% of foreign exchange reserves, with overall controllable risks. However, real estate and the iron and steel industry have more borrowings overseas and higher borrowing costs, so the corresponding risks need to be prevented.