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天津市是环渤海地区的经济中心,其对外直接投资在近几年来出现快速增长,产业结构也持续优化。本文选取天津市2003-2013年相关数据,对天津市对外直接投资与产业结构之间的关系进行实证检验,发现两者之间并不存在格兰杰因果关系,但两者通过了协整检验,说明两者之间存在长期的均衡关系,据此建立误差修正模型,发现:天津市的对外直接投资对于产业结构的优化升级存在显著地正向促进作用;同时,模型还表明天津市财政支出中的科学技术支出的增长、出口数量的增加及外商直接投资的增加对于天津市产业结构升级都存在着显著的正向影响,但总需求的扩张却对产业结构升级产生了消极的影响。
Tianjin is the economic center of the Bohai Rim. Its foreign direct investment has seen rapid growth in recent years and its industrial structure has been continuously optimized. This paper selects the relevant data of Tianjin from 2003 to 2013 to test the relationship between FDI and industrial structure in Tianjin and finds that there is no Granger causality between the two. However, both of them pass the cointegration test , Indicating that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. Based on this, an error correction model is established. It is found that outward FDI in Tianjin plays a positive role in promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, the model also shows that Tianjin’s fiscal expenditure The increase in science and technology expenditure, the increase in export volume and the increase in foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in Tianjin. However, the expansion of aggregate demand has had a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.