论文部分内容阅读
针对水库汛期具有确定性、随机性、模糊性和过渡性的变化特征,在综合分析传统汛期分析方法和指标的基础上,结合可变集理论,提出了基于量变与质变判别模式的汛期分期原理与模型,研究了基于暴雨指标、洪水指标和综合指标的水库汛期分期的变化规律,结果表明分期结果能反映指标的物理意义,有较强的理论背景,数学概念清楚;且汛期分期结果与分期指标有密切关系,在实际应用应综合考虑多种指标,让分期结果更客观,同时也可以利用不同指标的分期结果,为防洪安全或挖掘洪水资源潜力提供技术支撑.
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the traditional flood season analysis methods and indexes, combined with the variable set theory, a flood season staging principle based on quantitative and qualitative discriminant models is proposed for the flood season of the reservoir with deterministic, random, fuzzy and transitional characteristics. The results show that the staging result can reflect the physical meaning of the index, has a strong theoretical background, and has a clear mathematical concept; and the results of staging flood season and staging are the same as those of the flood season staging. Indicators are closely related to the practical application should take into account a variety of indicators, so that the staging results are more objective, but also can use different indicators of the staging results for flood control or flood potential to tap the potential to provide technical support.