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签派可靠度是表征民用客机整机可靠性的关键参数,也是影响飞机原始设计的重要技术参数。本文采集了航空公司实际统计的机型延误率数据,根据延误率和签派可靠度的映射关系,从民用飞机设计角度入手,首先提出飞机初期设计阶段的7个设计参数,对延误率与设计参数进行相关分析,得出相关度最大的前3个设计参数,建立了签派可靠度与3个飞机原始设计参数之间的多元回归模型,对民用飞机的签派可靠度进行预测,并用A320现役飞机和C919国产大飞机进行实证,预测模型合理,预测精度较高,可以为我国民用飞机整机签派可靠度的预测奠定理论基础和数据支撑,同时签派可靠度的预测模型可以为民用飞机的结构设计提供数据参考。
Dispatch reliability is a key parameter to characterize the reliability of the whole civil aircraft and also an important technical parameter that affects the original design of the aircraft. Based on the mapping relationship between the delay rate and dispatching reliability, starting from the perspective of civil aircraft design, this paper first presents seven design parameters of the early design phase of the aircraft, and analyzes the delay rate and design The correlation analysis between the parameters of the first three design parameters obtained the most relevant, the establishment of the dispatch reliability and the three original design parameters of the aircraft multiple regression model to predict the reliability of the dispatch of civil aircraft, and A320 Active aircraft and C919 domestic large aircraft for demonstration, forecasting model is reasonable and forecasting accuracy is high, which can lay the theoretical foundation and data support for the prediction of dispatch reliability of civil aircraft in China. At the same time, the prediction model of dispatch reliability can be used for civil Aircraft structure design to provide data reference.