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为预防和控制化学流程工业中的多米诺效应,在充分调研国内外相关文献的基础上,介绍多米诺效应的基本概念及机理,评述多米诺统计学分析现状、多米诺概率模型和阈值研究现状、蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)现状及预防多米诺效应的软件开发现状,指出多米诺效应风险评估研究存在的关键问题,并提出相应建议。研究表明:建立可靠的多米诺效应概率模型,在计算中引入MCS并进行迭代评估,将软件开发与地理信息系统(GIS)结合,自动生成所有可能的多米诺事故场景,定量评估每个单元的风险,能改善化学流程工业的本质安全。
In order to prevent and control the domino effect in the chemical process industry, the basic concepts and mechanism of the domino effect are introduced on the basis of full investigation of relevant literature both at home and abroad. The status quo of the domino statistical analysis, the current situation of the domino probability model and threshold research, Simulation (MCS) status and the status quo of software development to prevent domino effect, pointed out the key problems in the study of risk assessment of domino effect, and put forward corresponding suggestions. The research shows that the establishment of a reliable probability model of domino effect, the introduction of MCS in the calculation and iterative assessment, software development and geographic information system (GIS) combined to automatically generate all possible scenarios of domino accident, quantitative assessment of each unit of risk, Improve the inherent safety of chemical process industries.