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分析探讨40年来我国粮食生产的波动特征,对粮食产量的预测预报以及逐年稳定增长具有重要的现实意义。全国和部分省(区)单产序列的分析表明: 1.近40年来,我国粮食单产的增产年多于减产年,增产持续时间和增产幅度亦均大于减产年; 2.各省(区)的增减产年频数呈准正态分布,其累积频率曲线可分为稳定、不稳定和中间型三类; 3.增向转移概率大于减向转移概率,尤以减转增的概率为最大,减转减最小; 4.40年来我国粮食生产的发展经历了低产缓慢发展—波动发展—高速增长不稳定发展的3个阶段; 5.增减产年的历史演变具有较明显的准4年及其倍数周期的波动特征,各地主要波动周期的变化说明了粮食生产稳定性在地区上的差异。
It is of great practical significance to analyze and discuss the fluctuation characteristics of grain production in our country over the past 40 years, forecast and forecast the grain output and steadily increase year by year. The analysis of the yield series of the whole country and some provinces shows that: 1. The output of grain in China has increased more in the past 40 years than in the year of decline, and the duration and rate of increase in production have also exceeded the rate of decrease in production. 2. The increase in the number of provinces The annual frequency of production decreases quasi-normal distribution, the cumulative frequency curve can be divided into three categories of stability, instability and intermediate type; 3. Increase the transfer probability is greater than the probability of transfer reduction, especially the probability of reduction increase is the largest, minus 4. The development of grain production in our country experienced three stages of low-yield slow development-fluctuating development-unstable growth of high-speed growth in the past 40 years; 5. The historical evolution of the year of increase and decrease has obvious quasi-4 years and multiples of its cycle The fluctuation of the main fluctuating periods in all parts of the country illustrates the regional difference in the stability of grain production.