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基于国外盐岩地下油气储备库曾发生过的重大事故的统计资料,采用风险矩阵法对盐岩储备库在建设和运营过程中的存在的重大风险进行了评价,分析了储备库重大事故的发生概率、风险等级、事故类型以及引发事故的主要原因,为我国盐岩储备库在建设和运营中的风险管理提供理论依据。研究结果表明,单个盐穴在建设和运营过程中发生重大事故的统计概率为1.51%,风险等级介于三级和四级之间,属于基本可接受的风险,但必须制定防范、监控措施;事故类型可分为油气渗漏、腔体失效和地表沉陷,其中油气渗漏事故的风险等级为三级,属于可接受风险,其他类型的事故风险等级均为二级,属于可容许风险;引发事故的原因主要是套管破损、蠕变过量和人为失误,其次还有地面装置损坏和盖层失效。
Based on the statistical data of major accidents that have occurred in the underground oil and gas reservoirs of salt rock in foreign countries, the risk matrix method was used to evaluate the significant risks existing in the process of construction and operation of salt rock reservoirs, and the occurrence of major accidents in the reservoir was analyzed Probability, risk level, accident type and the main reason causing the accident, provide the theoretical basis for the risk management of China’s salt rock reserve construction and operation. The results show that the statistical probability of a single cavern in the course of construction and operation is 1.51%, and the risk level is between the third and fourth levels, which is a basic acceptable risk. However, preventive and monitoring measures must be formulated. Accident types can be divided into oil and gas leakage, cavity failure and surface subsidence, of which oil and gas leakage accident risk level three levels, are acceptable risks, other types of accident risk level are two, are admissible risks; trigger The main causes of the accident were casing damage, excessive creep and human error, followed by damage to the ground installation and failure of the cover.