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针对北京市住房开发投资是否过度的问题,本文通过分析住房供给量与国民经济发展水平的关系,对2008年到2012年间北京市的住房供给量与人均可支配收入、地区生产总值进行相关性分析、格兰杰因果检验,以判断住房开发投资是否有经济发展基础作支撑。研究结果表明,2008至2012年间,北京市的住房开发市场与宏观经济之间存在着一个稳定的长期均衡关系,并且地区生产总值和人均可支配收入是人均竣工面积的格兰杰原因,因此现有的投资水平有其经济基础,即北京市住房开发市场并不存在过度投资。
In view of the over-investment in housing development in Beijing, this paper analyzes the relationship between the supply of housing and the level of national economic development in Beijing from 2008 to 2012, the amount of housing supply per capita disposable income and regional GDP correlation Analysis, Granger causality test to determine whether the housing development investment for economic development as a basis for support. The results show that between 2008 and 2012, there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the housing development market and macro-economy in Beijing and GDP and per-capita disposable income are Granger causes of per capita completed area. Therefore, The existing level of investment has its economic base, that is, there is no over-investment in the housing development market in Beijing.