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引言: 随着大多数东南亚国家的经济恢复了正增长,1997-1998年金融危机所带来的恐慌(anni horribilis)开始在人们的记忆中渐渐淡去,1999年末至2000年初,在东南亚诸国的首都人们几乎可以感受到各国经济普遍复苏的迹象。2000年的上半年,经济学家们就开始谈论,在这个吉祥喜庆的龙年里,地区经济复苏将呈V字形。至少从总体趋势来看,一些作为“大标题”的宏观经济指标有了明显进步令人鼓舞:GDP呈现正增长,经常项目和资本项目双顺差,外汇储备增加等等。有迹象表明,该地区在某种程度上已恢复了正常,这足以使决策者们松口气了。
Introduction: As the economies of most Southeast Asian countries have returned to positive growth, the annihilation of the 1997-1998 financial crisis began to diminish in people’s memory. From late 1999 to early 2000, Almost all the people in the capital can feel the signs of the general economic recovery in various countries. In the first half of 2000, economists began to talk about the V-shaped regional economic recovery during this auspicious Year of the Dragon. At least from the general trend of view, some significant macroeconomic indicators as the “headline” have made encouraging progress: GDP shows positive growth, double current-account and capital account surplus, increased foreign exchange reserves and so on. There are signs that the region has returned to some measure of normalcy, which is enough to reign the policymakers.