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本文运用ESDA空间相关分析理论,结合GIS技术和GWR模型,探讨了2000-2010年江西省农业化肥施用的地域格局变化规律及其驱动机制。结果表明:研究期内化肥施用负荷量各年均值表现为先升后降,2000年各县(市)的单位耕地化肥施用负荷量集中于225-675 kg/hm2,2005与2010年则在411-675 kg/hm2和>675 kg/hm2两级较为集中,高负荷量值呈增加趋势,高负荷量地区由南至北范围扩大;县域化肥施用具有明显的正相关性,空间聚集分布显著;3个年份中,热点区范围由北到南移动、先收缩后扩大,冷点区则表现为由西向东迁移、发展变化;各类驱动因素对不同时间、地区化肥施用的影响程度和方向存在较大差异,总体而言,收入和劳动力起推动作用,人口、种植结构和农业技术对化肥施用多为抑制作用。
In this paper, ESDA spatial correlation analysis theory, combined with GIS technology and GWR model, to explore the 2000-2010 Jiangxi Province, the application of agro-fertilizer pattern of geographical change and its driving mechanism. The results showed that during the study period, the average annual load of chemical fertilizer application increased first and then decreased. In 2000, the load of chemical fertilizer application per unit of cultivated land in each county (city) focused on 225-675 kg / hm2, while that of 2010 was 411 -675 kg / hm2 and> 675 kg / hm2 are more concentrated, with high load value increasing. High load area expanding from south to north. Significant positive correlation between chemical fertilizer application and spatial distribution is significant. In the three years, the hotspot area moved from north to south, expanded first and then contracted, while the cold spot area migrated from west to east and changed and developed. The influences and driving directions of various drivers on the application of chemical fertilizers in different time and area existed In large part, incomes and labor force generally play a catalytic role. Population, planting structure and agricultural technology are mostly inhibitory to chemical fertilizer application.