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决策阶段对整个换道过程的安全性有重要影响,但目前缺乏对该阶段的深入研究。界定车道变换研究场景,基于驾驶人对外界信息的感知特性、驾驶期望、综合认知判断以及博弈理论等,分析交通冲突存在前提下驾驶人车道变换决策形成机制。引入博弈理论相关知识,进一步探讨换道决策机制中对象车与目标车道后随车对于临界冲突点进行的非合作混合战略博弈,对博弈双方驾驶人的收益以及纳什均衡解进行深入探析。研究表明车道变换决策机制由信息感知及三次判断决策过程耦合而成,影响驾驶人决策水平的因素包括信息源特征、驾驶人信息感知能力、驾驶人行为特性及综合认知判断能力等;两车非合作混合战略博弈的纳什均衡解由行车安全性、行车时间以及收益重要度因子共同决定。
The decision-making stage has an important impact on the safety of the entire lane change process, but there is currently no thorough study on this stage. Define the research scene of lane change. Based on the driver’s perception of outside information, driving expectation, synthetic cognitive judgment and game theory, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of driver lane change decision in the presence of traffic conflicts. The relevant knowledge of game theory is introduced to further explore the non-cooperative hybrid strategy game between the vehicle and the target lane in the lane change decision-making mechanism and the vehicle collision with the critical lane, and to gain an in-depth analysis of the drivers’ return and Nash equilibrium solution. The research shows that the decision mechanism of lane change is formed by the information perception and the three decision-making process. The factors influencing the decision-making level of drivers include information source characteristics, drivers ’information perception, drivers’ behavior characteristics and comprehensive cognitive ability. The Nash equilibrium of non-cooperative mixed strategy game is decided by driving safety, driving time and profit importance factor.