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目的 :研究年龄、时期和出生队列对疾病的效应的定量分析方法。方法 :采用Kupper数学模型 ,用矩阵的三角分解法求解 ,对三因素的各个亚层成分效应大小的定量参数估计。结果 :1970～ 1994年栖霞市胃癌死亡率前 10年上升后 15年呈平稳下降趋势。这种现象与时期因素关系不大 ,主要与 65～ 85岁及以上年龄组和 1910～至 1890～五个出生队列人群暴露于胃癌的危险性因素程度高有关。结论 :栖霞市胃癌死亡率的变化趋势与出生队列因素有关
Purpose: To study the quantitative analysis of the effects of age, age, and birth cohort on disease. Methods: Using Kupper’s mathematical model, the matrix’s triangular decomposition method was used to solve the quantitative parameters estimation of the effect of the three factors on the sub-layer component effects. Results: From 1970 to 1994, mortality rate of stomach cancer in Qixia City showed a steady decline after 15 years of rising in the first 10 years. This phenomenon has little to do with the period, and is mainly related to the high degree of risk factors for gastric cancer exposure in the 65-85-year-old and above age group and the 1910-to-1890-five birth cohort. Conclusion : The trend of mortality of gastric cancer in Qixia City is related to birth cohort