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受全球气候变暖影响,农业生产面临较大风险,研究农业热量资源的时空演变对农业生态环境、作物布局和种植制度等具有重要意义。本研究利用中国温带地区及外延200km范围内840个气象站点1960—2015年逐日气温资料,采用气象插值软件ANUSPLIN空间插值,基于偏差法计算了格点尺度稳定通过不同界限温度(≥0℃、5℃、10℃、15℃和20℃)的起止日期、持续日数和积温,综合分析了气候变化背景下农业热量资源的时空格局及不同时段一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区的变化。结果表明:温带地区均呈现出初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数和积温增加的趋势,≥15℃的热量资源变幅最大;不同界限温度初日自南向北推迟,终日提前、持续日数和积温逐渐减小。起止日期和积温年代距平从1990年开始正负转变,1960—1980年与2000年以后差异显著;寒温带持续日数和积温低值区域减少、中温带和暖温带高值范围增大。时段Ⅱ(1990—2015年)温带地区一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区相比时段Ⅰ(1960—1989年)存在不同程度北扩。
Affected by global warming, agricultural production is exposed to greater risks. Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural caloric resources is of great significance to agricultural ecological environment, crop layout and planting system. Based on the daily temperature data of 840 meteorological stations in the temperate zone within 200km of China and 1960 to 2015, the spatial interpolation of meteorological interpolation software ANUSPLIN was used in this study. Based on the deviation method, the grid scale stability was calculated by different boundary temperature (≥0 ℃, 5 Temperature, duration, number of days and accumulated temperature of the agricultural caloric resources under the background of climate change, and the spatial pattern of agricultural caloric resources under different climate change conditions and the patterns of double cropping, winter wheat and spring corn planting in different periods Variety. The results showed that all the temperate regions showed the trend of early-first day, late-day postponed, continuous days and accumulated temperature, and the largest increase of ≥15 ℃ was found. The temperature of different boundaries was delayed from south to north in the first day, Decrease The beginning and ending dates and the accumulated temperature anomalies changed from positive to negative in 1990, but significant differences were observed between 1960-1980 and 2000. The durations of cold days and the areas with low accumulated temperature decreased while the ranges of high-temperate and warm tempera- tures increased. During the period Ⅱ (1990-2015), there were two cropping systems in one year in a temperate region. The growing areas of winter wheat and spring maize showed a northward expansion in different degrees compared with that in the period Ⅰ (1960-1989).