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1 引言 Dempster-Shafer证据理论应用于不确定性推理领域即为证据推理。证据推理已经成为不确定性推理理论中的一种重要方法,实质上它是一种常识推理。证据推理同其它的不确定性推理方法相比,有其独特的优点,它特别适合表达模糊的、不确定的和“不知道的”信息,这类信息保存在基本可信度分配BPA(mass函数)中,且在推理过程中保留了这些信息。在证据推理中,最关键的是mass函数的分配与合成。mass函数是一种假设的度量函数,它是人们主观给出的,或者凭经验和感觉给出。文指出领域专家很难恰当地将不确定性和主观信度表示成mass分配。比如在医疗诊断中,即使医术非常高明的医生也很难对某些症状
1 Introduction Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is applied to the field of uncertainty reasoning is evidence reasoning. Evidence reasoning has become an important method in the theory of uncertainty reasoning, which is essentially a commonsense reasoning. Evidence reasoning has unique advantages over other methods of uncertainty reasoning, and it is particularly well-suited to expressing vague, uncertain and “unknowing” information that is preserved in terms of the basic belief distribution BPA (mass) Function), and in the reasoning process to retain the information. In evidence reasoning, the most critical is the distribution and synthesis of mass functions. The mass function is a hypothetical measurement function that is subjectively given or given by experience and feeling. The article points out that it is very difficult for field experts to properly represent uncertainty and subjective belief as mass distribution. For example, in medical diagnosis, even a highly skilled doctor is difficult to treat certain symptoms