应用灰色系统理论,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对近几年来贵州煤矿百万吨死亡率进行统计预测,通过灰色模型预测结果与多项式回归模型预测结果的对比,说明该灰色模型基本正确可靠,预测精度较高。因此,利用此灰色模型可对贵州煤矿的安全状况进行科学的分析及预测,及时采取必要的防范措施,对安全管理能起到一定的辅助作用。 By using the gray system theory, the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model is established to predict the death rate of one million tons of coal in Guizhou coalmine in recent years. By comparing the prediction results of the gray model with those of the polynomial regression model, Correct and reliable, high prediction accuracy. Therefore, the gray model can be used to conduct scientific analysis and prediction of the safety status of coal mines in Guizhou and timely take the necessary precautionary measures to play a supplementary role in safety management.