一、当前国内外经济形势分析国际形势。当前,影响全球经济复苏的不稳定、不确定因素有增无减,世界经济局势持续动荡,国际资本市场波动再度加剧,发达经济体增长势头有所减缓,新兴市场和发展中经济体继续面临增长阻力。国际货币基金组织(IMF)连续下调了2016年全球经济增长预期,由最初的3.6%先后下调到3.4%、3.2%,7月19日再次下调至3.1%。英国公投“脱欧”对全球金融市场的影响已经显现,全球货币氛围将更趋宽松,美联储加息预期加剧了金融市场扰动,货币政策以及政治风险催生的 First, the current domestic and international economic situation analysis of the international situation. At present, the unstable and uncertain factors affecting the global economic recovery have been increasing unilaterally. The world economic situation has continued to fluctuate. The volatility in international capital markets has intensified once again. The growth momentum in developed economies has slowed down. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to face increasing growth resistance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has continuously lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2016, down from 3.6% initially to 3.4% and 3.2% respectively, to 3.1% again on July 19. The impact of the British referendum and “Brexit” on the global financial markets has shown that the global monetary climate will be more relaxed. The Fed’s rate hike exacerbates financial market turmoil, monetary policy and political risk spawns