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根据前文提出的用水变化动态结构分解分析(SDA)模型,本文以1997—2007年中国用水为例,编制了中国15个部门水资源投入产出系列表,并对行业用水变化进行结构分解。验证参数和路径结果表明,该模型满足唯一性要求,各因子时间路径模拟效果很好,确保了结果的可靠性。模型成功分解较长期的(11年)用水变化过程并获得了动态化结果。分析结果表明,消费水平是各行业用水增长最重要的驱动力,而节水技术水平和最终需求结构对用水增长具有较强的抑制作用。三者在2002年前后的总体影响比例范围分别为:43.9%~44.2%、32.0%~39.1%和9.2%~18.6%。消费水平与最终需求结构的拉动作用促使第三产业用水增量最大。人口规模和经济系统效率对用水的影响相对较弱。实例研究表明,该模型能有效分解分析部门用水的长期变化,具有良好的适用性。
Based on the SDA model proposed above, this paper takes China’s water supply in 1997-2007 as an example to compile a series of input-output tables of water resources in 15 sectors in China, and analyzes the structural changes of water use in industries. Validation parameters and path results show that the model satisfies the uniqueness requirement and the simulation of each factor time path is very effective and ensures the reliability of the result. The model successfully decomposed longer-term (11 years) water use changes and obtained dynamic results. The results show that the consumption level is the most important driving force for water consumption growth in all industries, and the level of water-saving technologies and the final demand structure have a strong inhibitory effect on water use growth. The overall impact ratio of the three before and after 2002 ranged from 43.9% to 44.2%, 32.0% to 39.1% and 9.2% to 18.6% respectively. The driving effect of the consumption level and the final demand structure has prompted the tertiary industry to make the largest incremental use of water. The impact of population size and economic system efficiency on water use is relatively weak. The case study shows that this model can effectively decompose and analyze the long-term changes of departmental water use, and has good applicability.