Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃–5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simul

来源 :大气科学进展(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:fengyun816ok
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Extreme high temperature (EHT) events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change, especially for China, a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming. Based on the latest CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds (1.5℃–5℃). The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels (1861–1900) under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. Under SSP5-8.5, global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050. In China, most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China (Northwest China, North China and Northeast China), covering 50%–70% of the country. Furthermore, about 0.19–0.44 billion people (accounting for 16%–41% of the national population) will experience warming above the global average. Compared to present-day (1995–2014), the warmest day (TXx) will increase most notably in northern China, while the number of warm days (TX90p) and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) will increase most profoundly in southern China. For example, relative to the present-day, TXx will increase by 1℃–5℃ in northern China, and TX90p (WSDI) will increase by 25–150 (10–80) days in southern China at 1.5℃–5℃ global warming. Compared to 2℃–5℃, limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%–87% of the EHT increases in China.
其他文献
Using the World Meteorological Organization definition and a threshold-based classification technique, simulations of vortex displacement and split sudden strat
2019年的全国Ⅲ卷之理科数学卷,秉承了一贯作风,稳中有变,把解析几何作为压轴题.解析几何是高中数学的重点内容,是每年高考必考知识,特别是直线和圆锥曲线的位置关系,对学生
期刊