受中东及北非动乱的影响,进入2011年以来,国际油价再次过百。本文从当前油价供求基本面、美国的态度等角度,分析了油价未来的整体走势,得出了油价再次过百以后可能长期高位运行的结论。在此基础上,本文重点探讨了高油价对当前我国物价和经济增长的影响路径和传导机理,最后有针对性地提出了应对和消除这种影响的政策建议。 Affected by the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, since 2011, the international oil prices have again exceeded one hundred. This paper analyzes the future trend of the oil price from the perspective of the current oil supply and demand fundamentals and the attitude of the United States, and draws the conclusion that the oil price may be running at a high level for a long time after exceeding another hundred. On this basis, this paper focuses on the impact of high oil prices on China’s current price and economic growth path and transmission mechanism, and finally put forward some policy recommendations to address and eliminate this impact.