社会医疗保险的实施可以减少经济个体面临的风险而影响个体的消费和投资(储蓄)的选择,对个体的预防性储蓄行为产生挤出效应,增加消费。本文试图建立一个两期模型并通过仿真分析这种挤出效应。从宏观效果上看,大范围的社会医疗保险计划有助于缓解目前对中国高储蓄的担忧,这种制度性的规避风险安排比预防性储蓄的自我融资方式能提升整体的社会福利效果。本文最后就此对中国社会医疗保障制度的改革提出建议。 The implementation of social medical insurance can reduce the individual’s risk and influence the choice of individual’s consumption and investment (saving), exert a crowding-out effect on the individual’s preventive saving behavior and increase the consumption. This article attempts to establish a two-phase model and analyze the extrusion effect through simulation. From a macroeconomic point of view, a wide range of social health insurance plans can help alleviate the current concerns about high savings in China. This institutionalized risk avoidance arrangement can enhance the overall social welfare effect over the preventive financing self-financing approach. At the end of this article, we put forward suggestions on the reform of the social security system in China.