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本文使用向量误差修正模型(VECM),以及情景模拟方法对美国公共债务的前景进行分析,以此判断美国政府债务积累的可持续性和未来前景。本文基于误差修正模型得出结论显示,美国公共债务负担率、联邦财政赤字率,以及经济增速之间存在显著的协整关系,且反映出美国联邦政府长期的财政纪律,从而避免了债务负担率的无限上升。情景模拟的结论也显示,美国公共债务具有可持续性,最终债务负担率将稳定在67%~83%之间,联邦财政的赤字率最终均稳定在1.5%以下,均不会超过对美国经济造成实质性损害的临界水平。
In this paper, VECM and Scenario Simulation are used to analyze the prospects of public debt in the United States to determine the sustainability and future prospects of the U.S. government debt accumulation. Based on the error correction model, this article concludes that there is a significant cointegration relationship between the public debt burden ratio in the United States, the federal fiscal deficit rate, and the economic growth rate and reflects the long-term fiscal discipline of the U.S. federal government, thereby avoiding the debt burden The rate of unlimited rise. The results of the scenario simulation also show that the public debt in the United States is sustainable and the final debt burden will be stable at between 67% and 83%. The federal fiscal deficit will eventually both stabilize below 1.5%, which will not exceed the U.S. economy The critical level of substantial damage.