Shortly after the Shangri-La Dialogue and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s visits to Asia-Pacific countries, the 2012 Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC-2012) multinational naval exercise, the largest in history, will be staged at the end of June in the Pacific near Hawaii. The large scale naval exercise, along with Washington’s recent announcement of increasing its naval presence in the Asia-Pacific, has aroused wide speculation.
　　On June 2, during the Shangri-La Dialogue, which was held in Singapore and attended by defense ministers and military chiefs from 28 Asia-Pacific countries, Panetta said the United States will redeploy its Navy from a 50-50 split between the Pacific and the Atlantic to 60 percent of U.S. naval forces assigned to the Pacific Ocean. Though Panetta dismissed the notion that the growing involvement of the United States in the region would pose a challenge to China, Chinese observers remain cautious.
　　“The RIMPAC-2012 multinational naval exercise might not directly aim at China, since it emphasizes non-traditional security,”said Teng Jianqun, a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies. “But the steps of Washington should be observed because there are always gaps between its words and deeds.”
　　The largest naval exercise
　　The RIMPAC, a biennial naval exercise led by the United States, was first held in the 1970s. The original motivation was confronting the Soviet Union in the Pacific during the Cold War. Now it is the world’s largest international maritime warfare exercise.
　　RIMPAC-2012, which is to be conducted from June 29 to August 3, will involve 22 countries, 42 ships, six submarines, more than 200 aircraft as well as 25,000 personnel. Russia, the former imaginary enemy of the drill, will participate in the exercise for the first time.
　　“The scale of the exercise is so big. It highlights the United States’ increasing mili- tary presence in the Asia-Pacific region,”said Cao Weidong, a research fellow with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s Academic Research Institute.
　　“The focus of the RIMPAC naval exercise has shifted from countering the former Soviet Union to non-traditional security areas such as marine navigation safety, disaster relief, rescue operations and counter-piracy,”said Teng. “However, China will keep an eye on the moves of the United States.”
　　Analysts said economic concerns are the major reasons for Washington’s increasing military presence in the Asia-Pacific, but the Chinese factor cannot be ruled out.
　　“The Asia-Pacific region is now the engine of the world economy. The annual trade volume between the United States and the region is higher than that of the United States with any other region. But the Asia-Pacific also faces several ‘hotspot issues’ such as the Korean Peninsula issue and South China Sea issue. Both the dynamic economy and the unstable security situation in the region urge Washington to shift its strategic focus to the area,” said Cao.
　　“Almost all U.S. moves are backed by its military forces. Military exercises are an effective way to show its military might,” Cao added.
　　“From the recent speeches of U.S. President Barack Obama aiming at a second term, we can see his policy stresses expanding employment. Washington’s return to the AsiaPacific is not only a military concern. Since many Western countries are mired in financial and debt crises, the Asia-Pacific has become a new source of U.S. economic growth and employment enlargement,” said Teng.
　　The numerous events of the RIMPAC-2012 naval exercise show the exercise also has other aims, Cao said.
　　Besides events on non-traditional security, RIMPAC-2012, which is themed “capable, adaptive, partners,” will exercise a wide range of capabilities of naval forces, including maritime security operations, sea control, complex war maneuvers, amphibious operations, gun- nery, missile launching, and anti-submarine and air defense exercises.
　　“Obviously, pirates don’t have submarines,” Cao said. “Another intention of the military exercise of Washington is widely regarded as to deter China.”
　　“The United States is responding to the gradual rise of China militarily because China is modernizing its military forces,” Teng said to Beijing Review.
　　U.S. pivot toward Asia
　　In recent years, U.S. military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region have become commonplace. According to Panetta’s spokesman Carl Woog, in 2011 the U.S. Pacific Command participated in 172 multilateral and bilateral exercises with 24 countries in the region. During the Shangri-La Dialogue, Panetta also claimed that the United States would increase the size and scope of military exercises in the region and expand port visits by Navy ships.
　　At the beginning of this year, Washington released its new edition of battle guidelines. An AirSea Battle fighting concept was mentioned in the document, which is said to aim at cementing U.S. alliances in Asia and countering the “anti-access, area-denial” weapons and capabilities developed by other nations.
　　Observers say AirSea Battle is designed precisely to address the Pentagon’s concerns over China’s investment in “access-denial”weapons.
　　The new guideline mentioned China three times. It called on the United States to integrate its Navy, Army, Air Force and Marine Corps to combat China, Iran and other countries’ actions preventing the United States from getting access to the South China Sea, the Gulf, as well as other strategic areas, said Li Daguang, a senior military expert at the PLA University of National Defense in Beijing.
　　Many are concerned that the ever-expanding U.S. military capabilities in the AsiaPacific will raise tensions with other countries in the region, notably China.
　　“We are not naive about this relationship, and neither is China. We both understand the conflicts we have. But we also both understand that there really is no other alternative for both of us but to engage and to improve our communication and to improve our military-to-military relationships,” Panetta said at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
　　But before leaving for the multilateral military dialogue forum, Panetta said bluntly that his trip to Singapore, Viet Nam and India was aimed at remaining “vigilant” in the face of China’s growing military.
　　“One should be judged not only by what he says but also by what he does. Washington has repeated that it would not take sides on the South China Sea issue, but during the recent Huangyan Island dispute it actually showed its stance by sending warships to adjacent regions,” said Teng.
　　On April 10, the Philippines sent a warship to harass 12 Chinese fishing vessels that had sailed into the lagoon of Huangyan Island in the South China Sea to shelter from bad weather. The move sparked a diplomatic dispute between China and the Philippines.
　　Li said the current situation is different from that of the Cold War era. It is impossible for Washington to build up a military encirclement around China, but it will try to build up an encirclement to contain China by taking advantage of disputes between China and neighboring countries, especially South China Sea territorial disputes between China and some Southeast Asian countries including Viet Nam and the Philippines.
　　Teng cautioned that some countries concerned with the South China Sea issue might strengthen coordination during the upcoming two-month RIMPAC-2012 naval exercise, and they might take a much tougher stance on the issue in the future.
　　He said what the Asia-Pacific needs is not a large-scale military strategic adjustment but a peaceful and stable development environment.“China has always been explicit in its attitudes toward U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific. China welcomes the United States to play a constructive role in the region,” he said.