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2004年经济的继续复苏将带动消费的增长,基本金属市场将是消费驱动型的市场。而全球经济的发动机有两个引擎:一个是美国经济的复苏,另一个就是中国经济增长。尤其是中国经济的增长以及全球化所带来的产业转移将大大增强中国对全球原材料市场的依赖程度,表现在铜、镍等基本金属材料市场上就是中国的消费需求量逐步增大,中国对世界的影响越来越大。根据对铜市场供需的分析,我们认为2004年的铜市场将是一个消费推动型的上涨行情。虽然铜价面对着价格高涨后保值盘的抛售,但市场格局已经发生变化,现在的生产商有能力在需求不旺的情况下,通过减产和屯货等方式来平衡市场,这将有效控制市场供应。
The continued economic recovery in 2004 will drive consumption growth and the base metals market will be a consumer-driven market. The engine of the global economy has two engines: one is the recovery of the U.S. economy and the other is China’s economic growth. In particular, the growth of China’s economy and the industrial transfer brought about by globalization will greatly enhance China’s dependence on the global raw material market. The performance is reflected in the gradual increase of consumer demand in the basic metal materials market such as copper and nickel in China. The impact of the world is growing. Based on the analysis of supply and demand in the copper market, we think the copper market in 2004 will be a consumer-driven rally. Although the price of copper is facing the sell-off of hedging disks after the price hike, the market structure has changed. Now, the producers are able to control the market effectively by reducing production and receiving goods if demand is not favorable. supply.