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以河南省30个站点1981—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,将河南冬小麦主产区划分为5个区域,基于WOFOST作物生长模拟模型,分析了水分胁迫条件下河南省冬小麦减产风险值的变化规律.结果表明:1981—2014年,各区域冬小麦减产率均呈上升趋势,平均每10 a增加2.8%~5.0%.冬小麦减产率由北向南呈降低趋势,减产率超过20%的事件在豫南地区约10年一遇,豫北的新乡、封丘和濮阳一带约2年一遇;减产率超过50%的事件,在新乡、郑州地区约3年一遇,豫南少遇.豫北及豫中偏北的大部分地区为冬小麦减产风险高值区,豫西卢氏、豫西南南阳、豫南信阳和驻马店南部地区为冬小麦减产风险低值区,其他地区为风险中值区.
Based on the winter wheat observation data, historical meteorological data and soil data from 1981 to 2014 in 30 stations of Henan Province, the main winter wheat producing areas in Henan Province were divided into five regions. Based on the WOFOST crop growth simulation model, The results showed that from 1981 to 2014, the winter wheat yield in all regions showed an upward trend, with an average increase of 2.8% -5.0% every 10 years.The winter wheat yield decreased from north to south, and the rate of decrease in yield exceeded About 20% of the incidents occurred in about 10 years in southern Henan Province, about once in 2 years in Xinxiang, Fengqiu and Puyang in northern Henan Province. In the case of Xinxiang and Zhengzhou, South of the case.Yebei and Yuzhong northward most of the winter wheat yield reduction risk high value areas, Lushi West Henan, Southwest Nanyang, southern Henan Xinyang and southern Zhumadian low winter wheat production is low, the other areas are The median risk area.