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为了解蛋鸡生产和鸡蛋价格间的动态变化,运用协整检验和向量自回归模型,利用我国蛋鸡主产省2009—2014年的月度数据,就产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量和鸡蛋价格之间的动态变化关系进行实证分析。研究表明:产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量和鸡蛋价格之间存在长期均衡关系;三者之间在不同时期存在动态变化关系,当期产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量、鸡蛋价格变化主要取决于滞后了2期各变量的变化。三者在滞后1~7期、12期和17期时存在格兰杰因果关系或明显的脉冲响应值、方差贡献率等动态变化;实证结果与商品蛋雏鸡饲养5个月左右开产,6~7个月产蛋率趋于稳定及蛋鸡产蛋周期为12个月、饲养周期为17个月的生物学规律相吻合。
In order to understand the dynamic changes between the production of chicken and the price of eggs, using the co-integration test and vector autoregressive model, using the monthly data from 2009 to 2014 of the main producing provinces in China, Between the dynamic changes between the empirical analysis. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the stock, the yield of eggs and the price of eggs. There is a dynamic relationship between the three in different periods. The changes of current stock, egg production and egg prices mainly depend on lag 2 Changes in the various variables. There were Granger causality or obvious impulse response and variance contribution rate in the lag 1 to 7, 12 and 17 periods. The empirical results showed that the chickens were raised for about 5 months with 6 ~ 7 months to stabilize the laying rate and egg laying period of 12 months, feeding cycle of 17 months consistent with the biological laws.