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本研究先建立物质流分析模型,分析1980～2008年期间我国磷消费结构的变化特征及其对环境磷负荷的影响,随后探讨若干社会经济因素同我国磷消费污染之间的关联性.结果表明,城市生活和农村生活的人均磷养分输入分别由0.83 kg.a-1和0.75 kg.a-1增加到1.20 kg.a-1和0.99 kg.a-1,而城市生活磷养分循环比例则由62.6%下降到15.6%;畜禽养殖和种植业的磷养分输入持续增加,但前者磷养分循环比例由67.5%下降到40.5%,后者大量磷养分蓄积在农业土壤;人口、城市化水平、种植业发展水平以及畜禽养殖业发展水平与我国磷消费污染总负荷的相关系数达到0.90以上,说明它们是我国磷消费污染的重要诱因;环境Kuznets曲线研究表明我国目前仍处于初级发展阶段,牺牲环境质量以换取经济发展.研究表明,我国磷消费体系正向线性开放的代谢结构演变,磷养分流失持续增加,环境磷负荷大大加重.
In this study, we first establish a material flow analysis model to analyze the changing characteristics of phosphorus consumption structure and its impact on environmental phosphorus load from 1980 to 2008, and then discuss the relationship between some socio-economic factors and phosphorus consumption pollution in China. , The per capita phosphorus nutrient input in urban and rural areas increased from 0.83 kg.a-1 and 0.75 kg.a-1 to 1.20 kg.a-1 and 0.99 kg.a-1, respectively, while the proportion of urban phosphorus nutrient cycling From 62.6% to 15.6%. The input of phosphorus nutrients in livestock and poultry farming and plantation continued to increase, but the proportion of phosphorus nutrient in the former decreased from 67.5% to 40.5%, while the latter was accumulated in agricultural soil. The population and urbanization level , The level of development of planting industry and the correlation coefficient between the level of development of livestock and poultry farming and the total load of phosphorus consumption in our country reached above 0.90, indicating that they are the important inducement of phosphorus consumption pollution in our country. The study of environmental Kuznets curve shows that our country is still in the initial stage of development, At the expense of environmental quality in exchange for economic development, the research shows that the phosphorus consumption system in our country is evolving linearly and openly, the loss of phosphorus nutrients continues to increase, and the environmental phosphorus load greatly aggravates.